Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated during the Corona virus outbreak in the UK, which means the virus is spreading rapidly.
The fourth level means the adoption of the principle of social distance. After which the lockdown will be enforced again in case of fifth rank.
Earlier, Britain’s top scientific adviser warned that the number of new coronavirus patients could reach 50,000 a day by mid-October if the government did not take further action.
According to Sir Patrick Wallace, Chief Scientific Adviser, the death toll in the UK could rise to 200 a day a month after mid-October.
The government adviser’s warning comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson convenes a meeting of the Emergency Situations Committee “Cobra” on Tuesday (September 22nd). We will explain with reference to the new wave.
It may be recalled that on Sunday, corona was confirmed in 3899 people across the country and 18 deaths were reported.
Sir Patrick said the figures he was presenting were not predictions, but that “we understand that the epidemic is doubling every week at the moment.”
“And if, as the case may be, the number of new patients doubles every seven days, the number of new patients in October will be about fifty thousand a day.”
“The challenge we face is not to double the epidemic every seven days,” he added. It needs to be accelerated, steps need to be taken to reduce that number. ”
In addition to government advisers, we in the UK have been repeatedly told that the virus must be controlled. But when people don’t even know they have the corona virus, how can you control it? Many people do not have any symptoms at all.
When the first wave of Corona hit Britain, the whole nation stopped where it was. This has cost the country dearly in the areas of economy, education and public health, and now that the number of new cases is increasing, there are fears that new sanctions will be imposed across the country. The question is, aren’t we fighting a war we’ve already lost? Shouldn’t we learn to live with the virus instead?
Scene of ‘complete chaos’
Professor Carl Hannigan, of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, says the current situation reflects “complete chaos” where new restrictions are constantly being imposed and the whole school Are being sent home and all this is happening at a time when the rate of diagnosis of corona virus in new patients is very low.
According to Professor Henigan, this is the result of efforts to suppress the virus. But their position is that we must recognize that the virus will not go away, so we must reduce the risk posed by the virus. To do this, we must try to strike a balance between risk and prevention.
Professor Henigan is particularly concerned that the Covid 19 test could also catch a virus that is practically dead in the body, even if a person loses the ability to infect others months later. If the test is positive, then what do we mean by that?
“We need to exercise restraint in our thinking, but the problem is that as the number of new cases increases, the government gets upset.”
The real thing is hospital admissions, not ‘new patients’.
Professor Hannigan and many other experts are of the opinion that we should give more importance to the disease and not to the number of new patients. Although the number of new patients in hospitals in the UK has started to increase, the number is much lower than in the spring and the current increase is slower than before.
In addition, we must not forget that every year during these months the number of patients with respiratory diseases in hospitals increases and unfortunately the number of deaths also increases and every year in autumn and winter Types of viruses are more prevalent.
Some years prove to be worse, for example, between 2017 and 2018, 50,000 more deaths were recorded than in any other day of the year. The reason was that there was a cold that year, a more dangerous strain of the flu virus was found, and the vaccine was not effective against it.
On the contrary, according to sociologist and government adviser, Professor Robert Dingwall, people may now, instead of worrying, accept that thousands of people will die of cod in the same way as they do every year from the flu or the common cold.
Professor Robert Dingwall believes that these are just a few elements of public health and some of the country’s scientific leaders who are concerned about lowering the code rate and are criticizing politicians. These people think that politicians are not ‘brave enough’ to honestly tell the public that even if a vaccine is made, the virus will always be there.
What are the dangers of not keeping an eye on the situation?
If all your attention is on the growing number of patients in the hospitals, you are actually lagging behind because the patients in the hospitals arrive after a couple of weeks of illness, ie the infection has occurred a week or two ago. ۔ So if the number of hospital admissions gets out of hand, we need tougher measures than before.
Christina Pugel, a professor at University College London, says another problem is ‘long or long-term’, meaning that such patients continue to have problems months after the infection has subsided. Professor Christina Pugel thinks it would be “irresponsible” to allow the virus to spread like this, as it is only a year since the virus first surfaced and we cannot say for sure how long it will be in the patient. Effects remain.
He added that if the rate of infection among young people increases, it will be difficult to make it possible for the disease not to spread to people at high risk of contracting the virus.
Mark Willhouse, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, agrees, but says the government needs to strike a careful balance between the harms of code and the effects of efforts to control it. Try According to him, there is now growing evidence that the disease as a whole has worse effects than the disease itself.
There is no doubt that the total number of deaths is very high, because so far there have been more than forty thousand deaths linked to code. The highest death toll is in the elderly, with an average age of 80 years.
If you look at it in terms of the population of the country and the age of the people, you can see that compared to the last few years, 2020 has undoubtedly been a year in which there have been deaths that cannot be compared to other years.
How to save those who are most at risk?
Professor Wolhaus says the lockdown has only delayed the issue. We didn’t benefit from that, but now we can take advantage of the time and think about how to protect people who may be more at risk from the virus.
This means that we should do as many tests as possible in older people’s centers so that the virus does not enter those centers. Remember that out of every ten deaths so far, four have occurred in the elderly. Similar measures are needed for older people living in their own homes.
“We need a ‘chain of trust’ where we have to be careful about meeting people who are at high risk,” says Professor Willhouse. According to him, this means that if you have been to a busy place and you fear that you may have contracted the virus, you should not see your elderly loved ones.
It is also natural that people who are more at risk from the virus will be more careful than others. This is something that was not being done in February-March, and until the virus spread, people didn’t realize it.
Many health experts believe that people over the age of 50 should keep this in mind, but a balance must be struck between precautions and the actual risk.
Although the risk starts at the age of fifty, the risk is not high at that age. But then, as you get older, the risk increases. This phenomenon is more unusual in cod than in other diseases. Perhaps the easiest way to understand this is that the risk of death from an infection with this virus is twice as high as the risk of death from any other disease or injury. That is, the older a person gets and the worse their health, the greater the risk of contracting the virus.
Another thing we need to keep in mind is that doctors can now better treat the complications caused by this disease. For example, two types of life-saving drugs (steroids) have been discovered that can save people from dying from cod. Doctors now know how the virus works in the body. This means that hospital staff can now better treat blood clots and possible damage to the kidneys.
Looking at these things, it seems that this time the death toll will not be as high as it was during the first wave.
Herd immunity or collective immunity?
If we accept that the virus will not go away, then we have to talk about the controversial term called collective resistance.
There is a strong possibility that the corona virus will become a vaccine, but what if it doesn’t? Or what if the vaccine does not develop strong immunity in the elderly?
In that case, you will have to rely on the fact that so many young people will be vaccinated that it will create collective immunity in the country. However, the question arises as to whether we can rely on a vaccine for immunity that is being developed so quickly against a virus that may not affect our bodies as badly as we do. Understand?
Another way to develop immunity is to let people get as many viruses as possible. Like other types of corona virus, all the evidence suggests that the code also builds up immunity in your body, but then it weakens, and then you become infected again but you are not very sick. Would be It seems likely that in the years to come, we will be exposed to the corona virus every winter, just as the flu does. However, we must not forget that it is a new virus and scientists are constantly trying to understand it.
Some people think that politicians can take years, even decades, to do this. However, many others are more optimistic. Oxford University professor Sanitra Gupta, for example, thinks that natural immunity and the recent spread of the virus have led to a lot of resistance. According to him, this thing may not be detected in the corona test yet because it is difficult to say with certainty about the virus that the amount of antibodies in a person shows whether he has really corona or not.
“If we allow young and healthy people to get the corona virus during the winter, we will benefit in the years to come,” says Professor Sunitra Gupta.
“Have we always fought the virus in the same way in the past? What is different this time? If we continue to impose restrictions and lockdowns every day and wait for vaccines, the biggest losers will be the youth, especially those from the poorer areas. We can’t do that, it would be an injustice